Total Outstanding HMBS – How Long Will It Rise?

Total outstanding HMBS is $52.35 billion for September 2015, up from just under $52.21 billion at the end of August. We estimate that this increase is composed of approximately $161 million in negative amortization, plus the $680 million in new issuance, minus about $701 million in payoffs.

Total outstanding HMBS has been increasing each month, but at a slower and slower rate, totaling only about $140 million in September. Seasoned HMBS has paid off at over a 13% rate over the last 12 months, the highest annual rate since the introduction of HMBS. With payoff amounts at record highs, total HMBS outstanding could shrink for the first time during the next three to four months.

(Note: The following was published by New View Advisors, which compiled data from publicly available Ginnie Mae data as well as private sources.)